While the Polish president does not exercise his administration to the extent of his French counterparts, the election of Karol Naulocky marks an important political turning point, revitalizing rights and focuses on the ideological bay between the country’s pro-EU prime minister, Donald Task and President Euroceptic. His rise to presidency reconstructs dynamics both within Poland and across the European stage.
Domestic impact: blow to fangs and boost to right
The election results are a major setback for Prime Minister Donald Tass. Despite holding the executive body, Task’s position is now politically weakened. Many analysts interpret the loss of the second Rafał Trzaskowski after 2020, not as a vote for Now Rocky, but as a rejection of the liberal government of the task. While a call for Tusk to resign has already emerged, such a move remains unlikely. However, we can expect changes in internal government, including perhaps a well-known resignation like the Minister of Justice.
Trzaskowski’s defeat is a trustworthy figure from a growing influence pro-European camp, leaving only the current Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski. Some insiders claim that Sikorski, who lost Trzaskowski’s major platform, has gotten a better chance against Nawrocki. His height and growing his independent profile allowed Sikorski to challenge Tusk’s leadership within the Civic Platform (PO), but his lack of a strong party base remains a constraint.
The Nowrocky victory also temporarily integrates Poland’s historically fragmented right-wing camp. He received widespread support from other conservative and far-right candidates, including Swaumir Menzen of the Union Party. If this unity continues, we can lay the foundations for a new conservative coalition ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections.
European Union: Euroscepticism without “Polexit”
Nawrocki is euro skeptical, but not an anti-EU stance. Unlike Trzaskowski, known for its alignment with Brussels, Nawrocki is critical of the EU direction, especially the Green Deal, migration agreements, and proposals for treaty reform and greater centralization.
Despite these criticisms, Nowrocky has not defended Poland’s withdrawal from the EU. His position is consistent with much of the Polish political spectrum. They will maintain membership, but will resist further integration.
As French centralist MEP Bernard Guetta warned, Nowrocky’s presidency may not immediately result in diplomatic rupture, but “will have detrimental consequences in the long term.” Guetta warned that with support from Donald Trump, Nowrocky could lead efforts to isolate Poland from the EU’s political core and delay EU-wide integration projects, such as joint arms procurement under a new EUR 150 billion safe initiative.
Russia and Ukraine: Russian Hawkish, Kiev’s fuzzy
Nawrocki is stubbornly anti-Russian. His academic and professional work, former director of the National Memory Association, focuses on Soviet-era crimes against Poles. His support for the removal of Soviet monuments achieved the persona non-grata status in Russia in 2022.
However, in Ukraine, Nowrocky’s attitude is more cautious. He supports the Ukrainian fight against Russian invasion, but he is skeptical of Ukraine’s entry into the EU and NATO. It mainly cites threats to unresolved historical complaints relating to agriculture and World War II atrocities. He conditioned his support for the EU in Ukraine, and NATO bids on symbolic and material concessions.
Transatlantic relations: coordination with Trump’s GOP
Nawrocki is a dedicated Atlantic, highlighting Poland’s military partnership with the United States, and meeting Donald Trump and his allies during the campaign. His campaign received voice support from prominent American conservatives, including Homeland Security Secretary Christie Noem.
For Nowrocky, the powerful military presence of the United States in Poland remains a major pillar of national security, along with the modernization of Poland’s own military forces.
Conflict with Tusk Government: Gridlock and institutional tensions
Poland has a history of living together when the president and government belong to opposite political camps. From 2007 to 2010, the relationship between Lech Kaczyński (President PIS) and Donald Task (PO) saw a period characterized by persistent institutional conflicts, including foreign policy and defense.
After Bronislaw Komorowski’s victory in the 2010-2015 presidential election, the government and presidential relations were not in great conflict between 2015-2023, as President Andrzejdda came from the same camp as the government of Viatha Sidou and Mateus Morawicky. Friction emerged after Tusk became prime minister again at the end of 2023.
One area of continued tension between the government and the presidency was the appointment of ambassadors. Under Polish law, the ambassador is formally appointed by the President. After the 2023 election, Prime Minister Tass’ government submitted a list suggesting the dismissal of more than 50 ambassadors. However, President Duda refused to approve some of these changes. As a result, major diplomatic posts, such as Bogdan Krich in Washington and others in cities like Rome, require that they do not have a formally appointed ambassador, and the appointees act solely as mission heads.
A similar institutional standoff is likely under President Now Rocky. He is expected to continue this assertive approach, potentially blocking or delaying Task’s nomination from the regime, further complicating Polish foreign policy and undermining diplomatic presence in key international areas.
Impact on European rights: Continental trends
Nawrocki’s victory energizes the European conservatives and far right. He was blessed by Donald Trump, Victor Ovan and Giorgia Meloni. He also worked with George Simion, the leader of Romanian nationalists. His victory is interpreted by the right-wing circles as part of a wider continental shift, along with similar trends seen in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal.
Consistent themes – Refusal to green trading, resistance to transition policies, and national sovereignty over EU integration illustrate a common ideological framework.
The road to 2027
Nawrocki’s presidency introduces a new axis to Polish and European politics. Although he lacks full executive power, his victory could redefine Polish political narrative, alter its diplomatic orientation and catalyze the reorganization of rights both domestically and Europe.
His victory also leads to a sharp focus for the 2027 parliamentary elections. With weak fangs, revitalized rights, and growing transatlantic ties, Poland could become a central battlefield for the future of EU integration and transatlantic conservatism.
