In a dramatic escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Israel launched a drastic military operation last night targeting Iran’s main infrastructure.
With the codenamed Operation Raisinglion, the attacks hit more than 100 locations across Iran, focusing on nuclear facilities, military-led complexes and air defense systems.
The scale and accuracy of the strike has marked one of the region’s most extensive aerial campaigns in recent years.
The conflict places two of the Middle East’s most powerful troops on the direct conflict course. As the world watches with concern, fear is no longer about whether hostilities escalate, or how far they go.
A full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran will become very unstable not only in the region but also in the world due to its military power.
While Iran boasts a numerical advantage in its military, tanks and artillery, Israel maintains its technological advantage, its superior air force and some of the world’s most advanced missile defense systems.
Furthermore, both countries have demonstrated strength in drone and missile wars, with decades of experience in modern high-strength combat.
Predicting further attacks on Iran
The Israeli attacks from last night were an exhibition of military power.
Over 200 aircraft dropped over 330 precision ammunition and carried out a calibrated strike at Iran’s most sensitive locations.
Among the targets were nuclear scientists’ missile manufacturing facilities, housing and offices, and command centers for the Islamic Revolutionary Security Corps (IRGC).
The Natantz enrichment facility in Esfahan, located at the heart of Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, has been damaged alongside many locations across Tehran.
The first report from Iran also suggests a major loss.
Among those killed were Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of the army, and Feredun Abbasi, former director of the Atomic Energy Agency. Ali Shamhani, senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly suffered serious injuries.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) said it had carried out a “large-scale strike” targeting Iran’s air defense systems, destroying “dozens” of radar installations and surface-to-air missile launchers.
This suggests that Israel has cleared Iran’s deterrent capabilities in anticipation of further attacks.
Iran’s reaction and military strength
Iran responded quickly and fired over 100 drones towards Israeli territory. Most were intercepted by Israeli air defense systems to limit the impact.
Despite direct but limited retaliation, Iran’s full military potential remains an imminent threat to Israel.
The country has invested heavily in vast, sophisticated missile weapons, including ballistic missiles and even polar weapons ranging from over 3,000 kilometres.
These capabilities allow Iran to threaten regional enemies and regional US bases, which has so far served as a powerful deterrent.
Iran is also a regional leader in drone warfares, protecting a diverse fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) used for surveillance and strikes. The Islamic Republic has begun establishing drone production facilities overseas to further export the technology to its allies and support partners such as Russia.
Iran can also rely on asymmetric wars through large resident forces, enormous reserves, and proxies, cyberattacks and unconventional tactics.
Israeli Power: Small but highly organized
Meanwhile, Israel has long been recognized as one of the most technologically advanced military forces in the world.
Missile defense systems, including Iron Dome, David’s slings and arrows, are one of the most sophisticated in the world.
It also boasts powerful cyberweapon worlds and highly trained intelligence services like the famous Mossad and Shin Bet.
The Israeli Air Force is widely regarded as one of the best in the world with sophisticated aircraft and precision weapons. Israel owns 340 combat-enabled aircraft, many of which are cutting-edge American models, such as the F-35 stealth fighter. Iran is not too late with 23 additional aircraft operated by the IRGC, in addition to 312 aircraft, but mainly relies on the aging of Russian-made Skoy and MIG jets.
According to the global firepower index, in the land force category, Israel has 1,370 tanks and 43,407 armored vehicles, adding to 650 voluntary artillery units and 150 rocket gun systems.
Iran surpasses Israel in terms of tank count, operating a large fleet of 1,996 tanks and 65,765 armored vehicles. However, Israel operates its own Merkaba series tank, with almost half of which being the most modern Merkaba IV series, and Iran’s Merkaba IV series is primarily Soviet and updated curler models.
Israel, meanwhile, has the advantage of 580 units of self-propelled guns over Iran’s 775 rocket gun system.
Israeli military doctrine emphasizes rapid mobilization, resilience and technical advantage, all the traits that have been shaped by decades of continuous conflict.
Risk of spillover
A full-scale war between Israel and Iran risks igniting conflicts in the wider region.
Lebanon’s Iranian agent, Hezbollah, invaded southern Lebanon in October, and a temporary ceasefire came into effect in late November, largely castrated Hezbollah’s capabilities.
The battle can easily spread to Syria, Iraq and the Gulf, putting the region’s US assets at risk. The American official reportedly evacuated from Baghdad just two days ago.
Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” is an informal coalition that includes Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militia, Yemeni Houtis, and the Assad regime that overthrew in Syria, and still offers the ability to project force across borders.
Potential fallout is spreading across the battlefield. US involvement, whether intentional or the result of an attack on its assets, can swirl into wider international conflicts.
Europe could also be affected, whether through direct attacks, cyberattacks, disruptions in global oil flows, or the result of a knock-on effect of threats to major transport arteries passing through the Gulf of Aden.
The refugee crisis, economic instability and rising energy prices are all possible consequences that could affect European countries if conflict spreads.
